Is America’s Outdoor Boom Over?

In 2024, the U.S. outdoor industry cleared the symbolic threshold of $1.3 trillion in economic output. But for the first time since 2020, its growth came in slightly below that of the overall U.S. economy. Taken together, the numbers paint a more nuanced picture of an industry that is still massive, but clearly changing.

(cc) Blake Cheek / Unsplash

In early March 2026, three Colorado outdoor-industry figures — Bryan Wachs, Gary Montes de Oca, and Stephen Barnes — announced the launch of Outdoor Rec Collective. The new holding company plans to acquire outdoor brands and gradually move them into employee ownership, as an alternative to private investment funds seen as too focused on short-term returns. The initiative arrives just as the latest numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show slower growth across the sector. It also says a lot about where the industry may be headed next.

Big numbers, with a catch

Since 2016, after the passage of the Outdoor Recreation Jobs and Economic Impact Act, the Bureau of Economic Analysis has measured the annual economic contribution of outdoor recreation in the United States. These statistics, now published for the eighth straight year, are the most comprehensive source on the sector. The data is collected nationally and state by state, then adjusted for inflation, which makes year-to-year comparisons more reliable.

The 2024 numbers confirm just how large the outdoor economy has become: $696.7 billion in value added, or 2.4% of U.S. GDP. In gross economic output, not adjusted for inflation, outdoor recreation hit $1.3 trillion. The sector employs 5 million people, or 3.2% of the national workforce — more than agriculture or utilities. None of that is exactly new. The real change is the slowdown. After growing 2.7% in 2024, down from 5.3% the year before, the outdoor sector fell just below the growth rate of the overall economy, which came in at 2.8%. That matters all the more because, over the long run, the sector has been a standout performer: up 84% in current dollars since 2012, and 43% after inflation.

 « What we see today from our members is that people want to be outside. Demand for outdoor experiences continues to grow »

Kai Twanmoh, responsable de l'engagement de marque chez AllTrails

The BEA places three activities in a single category: climbing, hiking, and tent camping. Because those activities are bundled together, it is impossible to isolate climbing-specific figures. The agency says the grouping reflects a methodological problem: it is hard to separate spending and gear tied to each activity. A pair of hiking shoes might also be used for the approach to a route, and a backpack can serve equally well for a bivy or a trekking trip. In 2024, this “climbing-hiking-camping” category generated $7.75 billion in value added. It was also one of the fastest-growing segments, up 6.5% year over year, trailing only hunting — which is indeed classified as an outdoor activity in the United States — at 16.5%.

In absolute terms, though, that trio accounts for only about 1.1% of the total outdoor economy. That economic smallness stands in sharp contrast to the energy around the sector. For comparison, boating and fishing represent $38.4 billion. The gap points to a clear paradox: climbing, hiking, and tent camping are active, growing, and culturally visible, but their share of overall outdoor GDP remains modest next to activities with deeper roots in the American market.

The tricky paradoxes

In 2024, U.S. national parks posted record visitation. At the same time, AllTrails — the trail-mapping app used by tens of millions of people — reported 75% activity growth in 2025, its strongest jump since the first year of the pandemic in 2020. “What we see today from our members is that people want to be outside. Demand for outdoor experiences continues to grow,” said Kai Twanmoh, head of brand engagement at AllTrails, during the presentation of the BEA data. “We honestly expect 2026 is going to be even bigger as more people step away from their screens and the news cycle. We are predicting new highs for outdoor recreation interest and growth,” he added, in the optimistic tone you would expect.

« Wallets are thinner, trips are shorter and purchases are fewer »

Jessica Turner, présidente de l'Outdoor Recreation Roundtable

Jessica Turner, president of the Outdoor Recreation Roundtable — an organization representing more than 110,000 businesses tied to the outdoor economy — offered a more mixed assessment: “Americans continue to get outside in record numbers, yet purchasing has slowed.” That paradox runs through the entire 2024 dataset: participation is surging, while spending is flattening out. The sector breakdown shows a pretty clear divide. Lower-cost activities such as camping and hiking are holding steady or growing, while higher-cost categories that require major upfront spending — RVs and boats, for example — are struggling to keep their momentum.

“Wallets are thinner, trips are shorter and purchases are fewer,” Turner continued. It is a concise summary of the pressures weighing on the sector in 2024: persistent inflation, high interest rates, uncertainty around household budgets, and tariffs. Small retailers absorbed some of those costs themselves, which squeezed margins. Politics also played a role. In 2025, the federal government carried out major layoffs across public-lands agencies, including the National Park Service, the U.S. Forest Service, and the Bureau of Land Management. Those budget cuts weakened stewardship of natural spaces just as visitation hit new highs. The irony is hard to miss. At the end of 2024, Congress passed the EXPLORE Act, a law designed to expand access to outdoor spaces, improve infrastructure, and streamline permitting. But that law now faces implementation by a federal administration that is weaker and more underfunded than before.

An industry in transition

Beyond the short-term ups and downs, the numbers show an industry that remains huge and is still growing in absolute terms. The 2024 slowdown looks more like post-pandemic normalization than collapse. The extraordinary boom from 2020 to 2023 — fueled by lockdown restrictions and remote work — was probably never going to last forever.

The uneven resilience of different sectors also hints at a deeper structural shift. The data shows that outdoor recreation generates $350 million a day on federal lands alone, which is a strong argument for public investment. But the industry appears to be moving, little by little, away from a model centered on selling expensive gear and toward one focused more on experience and access.

The rise of Outdoor Rec Collective fits that shift. By offering employee ownership as an alternative to private capital, its founders are betting on an industry that will have to balance profitability with local roots. “There is a nervousness and anxiety right now throughout the outdoor recreation industry because of the tariffs or the economy or the low snow year. We want to offer both the business owners and their workers a way to ease that anxiety,” Bryan Wachs told The Colorado Sun. The model is drawing attention. Loren Rodgers, executive director of the National Center for Employee Ownership, notes that employee ownership is gaining ground in the United States, and that workers at those companies hold, on average, 92% more household wealth than employees with no ownership stake.

2026 as a turning point?

Forecasts for 2026 are split. Kai Twanmoh at AllTrails is expecting “new records for interest and growth in outdoor recreation.” Jessica Turner at the Outdoor Recreation Roundtable is calling for action: “To keep this economic sector strong in 2026, we need action: invest in access, reduce friction in supply chains and permitting with stable business environments, and pass commonsense policies that support outdoor recreation infrastructure and public lands and waters.”

The same question also hangs over Europe, and France in particular. U.S. trends often foreshadow changes in European markets, even if major structural differences remain. Still, the shared pressures are obvious: inflation, the cost of gear, and tougher tradeoffs in household spending. The 2024 U.S. numbers show an industry that is still a powerful economic engine, but one that is entering a more mature phase. The American outdoor industry is questioning itself, adapting, and testing new models. Like it or not, the rest of the world has every reason to pay close attention.

Read the full Bureau of Economic Analysis report, published March 5, 2026.